Give Me a Plausible Story and I'll Believe You

There is a great, illuminating mind game in Robert Burton's On Being Certain: Believing You're Right Even When You're Not. Read this paragraph, and as you read think about what you're feeling:

A newspaper is better than a magazine. A seashore is a better place than the street. At first it is better to run than to walk. You may have to try several times. It takes some skill, but it is easy to learn. Even young children can enjoy it. Once successful, complications are minimal. Birds seldom get too close. Rain, however, soaks in very fast. Too many people doing the same thing can also cause problems. One needs lots of room. If there are no complications it can be very peaceul. A rock will serve as an anchor. If things break loose from it, however, you will not get a second chance.

Irritating? Frustrating? I can fix that with one word - kite. Reread the paragraph, and notice how everything fits. Feels better, doesn't it?

Humans are problem solving machines. Give them a puzzle and they're frustrated if they can't solve it, satisfied if they can. This is deeply wired in us at a physical and emotional level, and the drive to solve problems is what keeps us moving forward.

But, there is a potential problem with our wiring. Try rereading the paragraph and recapture the feeling of not knowing what it is about. You can't; your brain says "kite" with every sentence. What if I told you the paragraph is not about kites, and to reread it to find a different solution? You almost certainly will not be able to do that either. Once your brain "knows" an answer it is very difficult to dislodge that answer and consider alternatives.

Bank executives took excessive risks out of greed - plausible, but true? American car makers are on the verge of bankruptcy as a result of capitulating to unions in the past - plausible, but true? Teaser rates were an important contributor to subsequent mortgage defaults - plausible, but true? Honestly, how much actual evidence have we seen supporting these propositions? It's frightening to realize how much we accept as true simply because it's plausible.